Critical minerals form the building blocks of the technological innovations that will define this century and the next. From artificial intelligence hardware and humanoid robotics to next-generation transportation systems such as eVTOLs — flying taxis that will initiate service in 2026 in various global locations — these elements are indispensable. Yet, as U.S. politicians and society debate whether they even like electric vehicles (EVs), the larger issue remains overlooked: without reliable access to critical minerals and the ability to produce components such as lithium-ion batteries domestically, the United States will become increasingly dependent on China — not just for cars, but for the technologies that underpin its economic and national security future.

The foundation of a new economy

The global demand for critical minerals — the backbone of clean energy, advanced electronics and defense systems — is accelerating at unprecedented speed. But supplies are concentrated, supply chains fragile and geopolitical competition fierce. As nations race toward electrification and automation, control over these resources is emerging as the new determinant of global power.

As a U.S. diplomat for 26 years and country manager in Chile and later global vice president of external affairs and sustainability for Albemarle (one of the largest global lithium producers), I have personally witnessed China’s global, long-term strategy to dominate this space. Beijing has invested relentlessly across the entire value chain: securing mining assets in Africa and South America, building vast processing capacity at home and subsidizing downstream battery and EV manufacturing. It’s an industrial policy masterclass that has given China not only scale but also control over the technologies driving global innovation.

The geography of power

Over the past few decades, U.S. mining and processing capacity steadily migrated overseas, driven by lower costs and looser regulations. The result: a dangerous dependency.

Beijing has weaponized this dominance through market manipulation, export restrictions and control of key technologies. By oversupplying minerals to depress prices and restricting the export of refining know-how, China has made it nearly impossible for Western competitors to scale without large-scale, public support.

U.S. policy shifts and gaps

Both the Biden and Trump administrations recognized the strategic risk. Biden’s infrastructure, the CHIPS and Science Act, and climate legislation poured billions into reshoring manufacturing and securing mineral supply chains. The Trump administration has continued this focus through Defense Production Act authorities and new investments in mining and refining. Yet the rollback of EV tax credits and production incentives risks undercutting the demand signals necessary to sustain private-sector investment.

Policy and investment recommendations

To regain control of its technological future, the U.S. must adopt a multi-pronged strategy:

• Expand and streamline domestic production.
• Provide targeted financial incentives such as off offering purchase guarantees and price floors.
• Partner with private capital to create long-term financing vehicles and de-risk major projects.
• Strengthen international partnerships with trusted allies to diversify supply.
• Build midstream processing capacity through domestic refining, workforce development and technology investment.
• Leverage a circular economy to recycle and reuse critical minerals and reduce primary demand.

JPMorgan Chase’s entry may signal a turning point

In October 2025, JPMorgan Chase announced a $1.5 trillion, 10-year Security & Resiliency Initiative, pledging up to $10 billion in direct equity and venture investments in U.S. companies tied to national security, including critical minerals and battery supply chains. CEO Jamie Dimon was direct: “America cannot depend on unreliable foreign sources for the materials that power

its future.” The initiative will support domestic mining, refining and recycling projects while advocating policy reforms to accelerate deployment.

The program’s sheer scale and explicit alignment with U.S. national security priorities set it apart from conventional environmental, social, and governance initiatives or infrastructure funds. If other major financial institutions follow suit, this coordinated flow of private capital could catalyze the build-out of an entire critical minerals ecosystem — transforming isolated projects into a resilient, globally competitive supply chain.

Looking ahead

As a Sonoco Visiting Fellow at the Darla Moore School of Business, I regularly engage with students, faculty and business and policy leaders to explore these challenges and identify paths forward. The experience has been deeply rewarding. The students, in particular, have impressed me with their strategic insight, nuanced understanding of China’s economic and cultural dynamics and their ability to thoughtfully debate and refine solutions. Their intellectual curiosity and global mindset reflect the strength of the Moore School’s commitment to developing the next generation of international business leaders.

Listening to this next generation of leaders reminds me that the solutions to these global challenges are within reach — if we act with foresight and purpose. That begins with recognizing the central role of critical minerals in shaping our shared future.

Critical minerals are as vital to this century’s economy as oil was to the last generation. Without secure access to them, the U.S. risks ceding leadership in the technologies that will define both prosperity and defense. With aligned policy, patient capital and strategic public-private collaboration, the nation can still tip the balance of this new geopolitical chessboard in its favor.